viernes, 24 de enero de 2014

Creación de empleo en 2014,2015.............

Aquí tenemos unos párrafos del periódico  "The Economist" del 18.01.2014. (  Me parece muy interesante en el sentido que trata de una evolución muy que probable de la creación del empleo en el futuro.

Los que piensan que vamos crear plazas de trabajo en 2014, 2015 y más , deberían también pensar donde  vamos a crearles. ¿que serán las tecnologías del futuro? lamentablemente muchos de los parados actuales no van a encontrar empleo debido al hecho que el empleo mismo ha cambiado fundamentalmente. Hay una asimetría entre la oferta y la demanda de trabajo.
Si la estudie de Oxford fuera que parcialmente correcta,  entre 40 y 50% de los puestos actuales van a ser automatizados.  Ya hoy en día falta gente para 1 000 000 de plazas con especialización en informática en Europa.
Conclusión: plazas de trabajo hay solo falta la formación adecuada. Entonces si no cambiamos de rumbo en la formación y la orientación del alumnado y de la gente en general vamos a tener una sociedad que pudiera conocer a medio o largo plazo conflictos sociales que no son a minimizar.
Es interesante que tenemos muchas paralelas con el inicio de la revolución industrial y a veces es importante recordarse de la historia, adaptar los conceptos a los tiempos modernos y intentar corregir los errores del pasado para el bien del futuro.
Tengo la impresión que algunos gobiernos del viejo continente no están preparados ni saben por donde van los tiros. Entonces buena suerte, buenos sueños y que no despierten y se encuentren en una pesadilla!

Technology and Jobs     | From the print edition of the economist

Coming to an office near you

The effect of today’s technology on tomorrow’s jobs will be immense—and no country is ready for it .       

INNOVATION, the elixir of progress, has always cost people their jobs. In the Industrial Revolution artisan weavers were swept aside by the mechanical loom. Over the past 30 years the digital revolution has displaced many of the mid-skill jobs that underpinned 20th-century middle-class life. Typists, ticket agents, bank tellers and many production-line jobs have been dispensed with, just as the weavers were

For those, including this newspaper, who believe that technological progress has made the world a better place, such churn is a natural part of rising prosperity. Although innovation kills some jobs, it creates new and better ones, as a more productive society becomes richer and its wealthier inhabitants demand more goods and services. A hundred years ago one in three American workers was employed on a farm. Today less than 2% of them produce far more food. The millions freed from the land were not consigned to joblessness, but found better-paid work as the economy grew more sophisticated. Today the pool of secretaries has shrunk, but there are ever more computer programmers and web designers
Even if new jobs and wonderful products emerge, in the short term income gaps will widen, causing huge social dislocation and perhaps even changing politics. Technology’s impact will feel like a tornado, hitting the rich world first, but eventually sweeping through poorer countries too. No government is prepared for it.
Why be worried? It is partly just a matter of history repeating itself. In the early part of the Industrial Revolution the rewards of increasing productivity went disproportionately to capital; later on, labour reaped most of the benefits. The pattern today is similar. The prosperity unleashed by the digital revolution has gone overwhelmingly to the owners of capital and the highest-skilled workers. Over the past three decades, labour’s share of output has shrunk globally from 64% to 59%. Meanwhile, the share of income going to the top 1% in America has risen from around 9% in the 1970s to 22% today. Unemployment is at alarming levels in much of the rich world, and not just for cyclical reasons. In 2000, 65% of working-age Americans were in work; since then the proportion has fallen, during good years as well as bad, to the current level of 59%.
Worse, it seems likely that this wave of technological disruption to the job market has only just started. From driverless cars to clever household gadgets (see article), innovations that already exist could destroy swathes of jobs that have hitherto been untouched. The public sector is one obvious target: it has proved singularly resistant to tech-driven reinvention. But the step change in what computers can do will have a powerful effect on middle-class jobs in the private sector too.
Until now the jobs most vulnerable to machines were those that involved routine, repetitive tasks. But thanks to the exponential rise in processing power and the ubiquity of digitised information (“big data”), computers are increasingly able to perform complicated tasks more cheaply and effectively than people. Clever industrial robots can quickly “learn” a set of human actions. Services may be even more vulnerable. Computers can already detect intruders in a closed-circuit camera picture more reliably than a human can. By comparing reams of financial or biometric data, they can often diagnose fraud or illness more accurately than any number of accountants or doctors. One recent study by academics at Oxford University suggests that 47% of today’s jobs could be automated in the next two decades.
Many of the jobs most at risk are lower down the ladder (logistics, haulage), whereas the skills that are least vulnerable to automation (creativity, managerial expertise) tend to be higher up, so median wages are likely to remain stagnant for some time and income gaps are likely to widen.
Anger about rising inequality is bound to grow, but politicians will find it hard to address the problem.

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